Trea Turner Might Actually Never Get Caught Stealing
With the new baserunning rules, there's the Turner philosophy and the Acuña philosophy.
The last time Trea Turner was thrown out stealing, you wouldn’t say he was exactly thrown out stealing. The throw was extremely late. The shortstop, knowing there was no play, fielded the throw five feet behind the bag, not even intending a tag. Turner slid into second base feet first, totally unbothered. Then his pop-up slide went a little hinky. He teetered slightly, his anchor foot popped off the bag, and the shortstop placed a glove on him. Turner was caught stealing. September, 2022.
The last time Turner was thrown out stealing before that was in May 2022. This is how close the play was—in this frame the tag still hadn’t yet touched him:
It wasn’t so much that Turner was a little late to the base as that he was several months too early to the base. With the bigger 2023 bases—and the distance between first and second base shaved down by 4 ½ inches—he’d have probably been safe.
The last time Turner was thrown out stealing before that came on a pickoff, in early May 2022. It was the third pickoff throw of the at-bat. In modern ball, where a third pickoff attempt risks a balk, it might never have been thrown, but this was back in the ancient times.
And the last time Turner was thrown out stealing before that was in September 2021, more than two years ago, and that one was totally normal. A perfect throw tailing into his body allowed a quick tag and Turner was clearly out, by more than 4 ½ inches even, though not much more than 4 ½ inches:
If we look at the entire period between 2019 and 2022, Turner was thrown out stealing 17 times. Twice it was because he overslid the bag. Twice it was because he stopped halfway, trying on purpose to get hung up in a rundown so his teammate at third could score. Five of those times he was picked off by the pitcher. Turner stole 107 bases in those four years, and only eight times (including once on a pitchout) was he thrown out in the traditional sense, where the catcher threw the ball to the base and it was there before Turner. One hundred and seven; eight. And that was before the rules were changed to help Turner.
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I misunderstood a headline the other day. It was about Turner going 30 for 30 stealing bases in the regular season this year, a record. (He’s 40 for his last 40 going back to the end of the 2022 season and including playoff games.) The headline was a quote from Turner, on base thefting: “There’s Not Much Risk.”
What a bold statement, so confident, that classic irreverent Phillie ‘tude, thought I. Turner is perhaps the fastest man in baseball. His Statcast sprint speed was third among regulars this year, and some years he’s first. Given the new rules put in place to make basestealing easier and basestealers famous again, how close has he even come to being thrown out over those 40 record-setting steals?
Generally speaking, not very close. Of the 40 stolen bases, these are four of the five closest plays he has been involved in:
In the first one, he’s safe by probably two feet (as in, the fielder’s tag was still two feet away from Turner when Turner touched the base). By stolen base standards, two feet is not really close at all; stolen bases routinely hinge on several camera angles in the video review room. In the second one, he’s safe by about a foot, though (as with the first one) the throw bounced and made the tag slower. In the third, he’s safe by about a half-foot. In the fourth, a tag would have beat him, but the fielder couldn’t hang onto the ball, which was tailing hard away from second base.
So that’s four times that a better throw, or a better catch/tag, would or might have gotten Trea Turner out. You wouldn’t say he got lucky, since perfect throws are rare, but he was fortunate; the outcome wasn’t entirely under his control.
And once, he really got lucky: It was April 4, and it might be worth noting that it came on a delayed steal. The throw beat him, the tag was applied to his thigh, he was out and by plenty—but, as he slid through, his left hand happened to knock the ball loose from the fielder’s glove—and he was safe:
That’s the closest Trea Turner has come to being out stealing in the past 13 months. The other 35 stolen bases weren’t close at all. If every fielder on every team had made the perfect play every time that Turner tried to steal, he’d be something like 35 for his last 40, which would still be an elite success rate.
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Of the other 35, 19 were so not-close that they were stolen without a throw. Once, his stolen base was so non-competitive that I think the umpire actually called time out before Turner had made it to second base.
Forty successful stolen bases, only 21 throws, and of those throws only nine were close enough that a tag was applied. If you want to be really, really generous, and count times where a fielder held the glove near Turner in case he overslid the bag, we could call it 11 tags.
Often there’s no tag because he beats the throw by so, so much:
And often there’s no tag because the throws are terrible. He gets such great jumps, and is so fast, that catchers make desperate, hurried throws—often from their knees—and end up throwing wildly. Eight of the 21 throws were either bounced, or forced the fielder to jump to make a catch, or ended up in the outfield.
Three became errors that Turner advanced on.
The league average success rate on stolen bases this year was 80 percent. Turner steals 78 percent of his attempts without a tag. So, yes, like the quote said: Not Much Risk.
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But I already told you that I misunderstood the quote. Turner wasn’t saying that he’s so fast (and the new rules are so advantageous) that ain’t nothin' gonna break his stride, nobody gonna slow him down. Oh no. The full quote was:
“With Bryce [Harper] hitting behind me, we’re trying to let him hit. Usually when I get the green light now, it’s an obvious one. It’s pretty straightforward. There’s not much risk on my part.”
What Turner was really saying is that he doesn’t attempt to steal bases unless there’s not much risk—bordering, as we’ve seen, on no risk—that he’ll get thrown out. He’s basically saying he’s cautious. And this, really, is the most fascinating part of Turner’s stolen base success streak. He went 30 for 30 this year, and barely even reached the point where other teams could get the throw into the frame. Which makes me suspect he could have stolen 100 if he’d really wanted to.
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