Sometimes I will show you a screengrab of a baserunner breaking from first, and I will say “what a bad jump this runner got!” I believe it when I say it, but I also haven’t had a very consistent standard. Now I do, it’s a very simple standard, and I’ll share it with you. From now on you’ll be able to say whether a baserunner got a good jump from first.
Here’s the basics: As I noted when I wrote about Elly De La Cruz (and TJ Friedl) this week, every base stealer eventually gets to precisely this position:
I’m calling that the End Of Jump position: It’s the first full stride with the right leg, just as the left foot is coming off the ground.
Before the EOJ comes everything we call The Jump. There are four main variables covered by The Jump:
How quickly did the runner react to the pitcher’s first movement?
How efficiently did the runner pivot and turn toward second base?
How rapidly did the runner accelerate from a stop? How fast was the first (left-leg) stride?
How well did the runner pick his moment? Did he pick a pitch when the pitcher was using a big leg kick, giving him more time to reach second? Or did he pick a pitch when the pitcher used a slide (or modified slide) step?
Since all four of those variables are important to evaluating the Jump, and since they all happen before the EOJ position, and since every runner will definitely get into the EOJ position, then the EOJ position unlocks everything for us. Now all we need to do is freeze on the EOJ position and see how far the pitcher has progressed with his motion, as I did for every stolen base from Tuesday and Wednesday’s games.
1. This Is A Good Jump
A good jump is very simple: If the runner is in the EOJ position and the pitcher is still bringing the ball back, that is a very good jump. If the ball is still in the pitcher’s glove, as above, it’s a GREAT jump. But really, so long as the pitcher is still reaching back with the ball, it’s a good jump. These are all good jumps.
Safe, safe, safe, safe, safe. All five of those runners were safe.
2. This Is A Bad Jump
A bad jump is very simple: Is the ball above the pitcher’s shoulder? If the ball is above the pitcher’s shoulder, he’s about 1/100000000th of a second from releasing the pitch, and if the runner is still only at EOJ then he is trailing in the play (unless, arguably, he is Elly De La Cruz.) Whether it’s because he reacted too slowly, spun his wheels when he got going, or picked a slide step to go on, he’s got a bad jump. These are all bad jumps:
Out, Safe on a bad throw, Out, Out, Out.
3. This Is A Medium Jump
A medium jump is in the middle: It’s a jump where the pitcher has begun bringing the ball forward, but hasn’t cocked his elbow, and probably hasn’t yet landed his front foot on the ground. “Medium” is a spectrum. The one above is very close to a good jump; the last one in the montage below is very close to a bad jump.
These are all medium jumps:
Safe, safe, safe, safe, safe. These guys were all safe, too.
I thought about calling the medium jumps “coin flip jumps,” not because they’re actually coin flips—most baserunners will be safe on these jumps, since choosing to steal bases has a bias toward success—but because these are the ones that really come down to how well the catcher and middle infielder do their jobs. We can see this with two jumps from the same inning Wednesday. These jumps are basically identical, by two teammates whose sprint speeds are also basically identical.
That’s Kyle Stowers in the top image and Cedric Mullins in the lower one. As you can see by the EOJ frames: Identical jumps.
Nothing much changes in the next 30 feet, and why would it? It’s just running in a straight line. As the catcher cocks to throw, Stowers and Mullins occupy the same spot in the infield:
But one throw by the catcher was perfect, right on the runner’s hip. The other throw by the catcher bounced six feet in front of the base. Stowers (top) was out, and nobody on either broadcast mentioned his jump. Mullins (bottom) was safe, and the broadcaster mentioned his great jump1.
I hope this helps you enjoy baseball a little bit more. It has for me. I’m watching the A’s and Mariners play while I write this, and the Mariners’ lumbering catcher Cal Raleigh just stole his first base of the year (and second of his career). The Seattle broadcasters are giddy at the unexpectedness of Raleigh stealing. As they show the replay,
Dave Sims exclaims, “That’s a good jump!”
I can confirm.
Broadcasters will call virtually anything a good jump, I discovered while compiling these.
I legit got excited when we got a Bonus Pebble this week. In thanks, I'm going to totally rip off your idea from Grant and Andy's podcast and say, did you know that Cal Raleigh has a significantly faster Sprint Speed than J.P. Crawford?
Love this!
Where can you see replays of all these stolen base attempts from that angle?