Was Francisco Lindor Nervous?

The biggest plays of the season, and a little game I created for you.

Oct 01, 2024

The most consequential play of the 2024 regular season was the home run that Francisco Lindor hit in the ninth inning of the first game of Monday’s doubleheader. By Baseball Reference’s championship win probability added, that home run improved the Mets’ chances of winning this year’s World Series by almost 2 percentage points. That’s not just the biggest play of this regular season; it’s the biggest play (by cWPA) of any regular season since 20111. It’s the biggest regular-season play since MLB added a second (and then third) wild card in 2012.

For.one play to swing a team’s cWPA like that, it has to a) come in a huge situation, with the game on the line, and b) come in a game that is hugely important for the team. By definition, it must come in a moment that would make you very nervous. If Lindor had failed, he might well have cost the Mets a playoff spot. So, was Lindor nervous?

I’ll never know for sure, you’ll never know for sure, but we have moving pictures of him right before he hit the homer, and I’m curious whether you think he looks nervous:

Now, the trick here is that I’ve just shown you two videos from two different at-bats. One of them is the one where Lindor hit the home run, in the ninth inning, on the last day of the season, with his team down, and the playoffs very directly on the line. The other was… just some other at-bat in the third inning. Not a meaningless at-bat by any means, but not one that would make him nervous.

Unfortunately, I can’t play along with this game, because I know which video is from which at-bat. But you can. Pick the one where you think he looks more nervous. I’m going to tell you at the bottom of this post which is which. (But don’t look yet.)

Before the Lindor game, the most consequential play of the 2024 season had been a home run allowed by A.J. Puk of the Arizona Diamondbacks. It was the ninth inning, a tie game, the go-ahead run was already on base, and at the time the home run dropped Puk’s team’s chances of winning the World Series this year by almost 1 percent. One of the short films below shows Puk right before that home run; the other shows him in…a different game, which his team was leading 12-5, zero stress. Can you tell the difference? Does Puk look notably more nervous in one?

The next biggest play, by cWPA, had been a double hit by Cedric Mullins back in July, against the Yankees. The bases were loaded, there were two outs, it was the bottom of the ninth inning and his team was down by one before he walked the game off. One of the GIFs below shows him right before he hit that double. The other shows him the day before, in a fairly meaningless at-bat with his team down 6-1 in the seventh inning.

Does he look more nervous in one of these?

The next-biggest play, by cWPA, happened to the Cleveland reliever Hunter Gaddis. In one of these videos, the tying run is on third, high stress. In the other, the tying run is potentially on deck, just a normal workday. You pick:

Last one: Fourth-biggest play of the season before the Lindor game. It’s Arizona’s Jake McCarthy. The bases were loaded in the bottom of the ninth with McCarthy’s team down by one run. That’s one of the clips below; the other is McCarthy batting in the third inning of the same game, his team trailing by three. In either of these,

does

look

nervous?

Okay, here come the answers. I’m interested in how you did, and I’m interested in any observations you might make. Like I said, I can’t really play along, but I actually think you’ll do well. I think there’s something barely visible that comes through in the big moments.

The answers—

Lindor, the first clip should be the nervous one
Puk, the second clip should be the nervous one
Mullins, the first clip should be the nervous one
Gaddis, the second clip should be the nervous one
McCarthy, the second clip should be the nervous one

Note that I said “Before the Lindor game” to describe Puk’s play, rather than calling it “the second-biggest play of the season.” That’s because four of the six biggest plays of the season all came from the Monday doubleheader, knocking Puk and the rest down the list. Ozzie Albies’ eighth-inning double, with a cWPA of 1.80—Lindor’s was 1.85—would be the biggest play since 2011, had Lindor not homered a few minutes later. It was a very good game.

Thanks to Daniel Hirsch and eternally thanks to Baseball Reference for research assistance.

There were actually five plays in 2011 that were bigger by cWPA than the Lindor homer, and they all came on the same day, all within about an hour of each other. There’s a decent chance you still remember where you were that day.