But it's so simple. All I have to do is divine from what I know of you: are you the sort of man who would put the poison into his own goblet or his enemy's? Now, a clever man would put the poison into his own goblet, because he would know that only a great fool would reach for what he was given. I am not a great fool, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you. But you must have known I was not a great fool, you would have counted on it, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of me.
If first-and-third in the majors is starting to emulate Little League/HS/college, then MLB teams should fully embrace the elaborate set pieces of their league brethren.
Bluffs and runners slowing down are no fun. Let's have the runner on first fall ass over elbows on his way to second. Or the have the catcher throw a dart to second that the pitcher intercepts. Or have the defense put on a short one-act play with the catcher airing it out, the pitcher ducking, the infielder diving for the wayward throw, only to have the ball be in the catcher's mitt the whole time (a la Little Big League).
I feel like a dummy, but WHY has it changed? Does it have something to do with the new throwing over rules? With 150 years of pro ball I don’t understand why all of a sudden this situation has started to favor the runners. Are the runners faster now? Did I miss it in the article? If it’s been the case at every lower level, it’s not like the idea can be brand new in MLB.
I remember high school baseball practices where we'd spend HOURS practicing ways to defend this: pump-fake to second, throw to third; throw down to a MIF who's charging in; throw down cut off by the pitcher; etc etc. In most scenarios, you'd need your high school catcher/MIF to execute at least one good throw/tag from to prevent anything bad from happening, let alone something good. Add in that we had complicated signs and codewords for the various strategies, so there was ample opportunity for miscommunication. And all those practice hours we spent on this came at the expense of practicing basic stuff. I remain convinced that the optimal high school strategy, and probably for college, too, is to just let the runner take second.
In the Orioles paragraph you refer to the 2023 season as "this year". I'm sure this has been answered on EW at some point throughout the years, but when do you personally transition from "this year/this season" to "last year/last season"? For me, it's probably around Thanksgiving.
The evolving cat-and-mouse game makes me think about what we're actually doing when we project a guy to keep up quality career numbers - it's that we're projecting he will continue to stay ahead of the curve and successfully make adjustments.
As a long-time travel softball coach (now retired) with a daughter who was the starting catcher we spent many rides in the truck talking about this situation. Softball having only 60ft bases and no leads is obviously different than baseball. Generally, I rarely let a girl go to 2nd without a throw somewhere. My daughter had a cannon and quick release (humble brag) so often she threw right to third to get that girl breaking home or even better a throw to the 2nd basemen coming up between the bags in the basepath. This stopped the runner at first, often got a tag out of her, or a quick peg home. It’s too good quick throws and no matter the age it’s a gamble. Doing nothing is worse.
wait but if this is the case: “Not only do the Orioles sometimes get outs at second, and not only do they never allow double steals of home, but fewer baserunners test them at all—teams don’t take the free second base against them, because it’s not free.”
…then why don’t the runners on third go home since they know a throw is coming? Is this a Jon Lester pickoff situation where they know it but don’t really believe it?
But it's so simple. All I have to do is divine from what I know of you: are you the sort of man who would put the poison into his own goblet or his enemy's? Now, a clever man would put the poison into his own goblet, because he would know that only a great fool would reach for what he was given. I am not a great fool, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you. But you must have known I was not a great fool, you would have counted on it, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of me.
If first-and-third in the majors is starting to emulate Little League/HS/college, then MLB teams should fully embrace the elaborate set pieces of their league brethren.
Bluffs and runners slowing down are no fun. Let's have the runner on first fall ass over elbows on his way to second. Or the have the catcher throw a dart to second that the pitcher intercepts. Or have the defense put on a short one-act play with the catcher airing it out, the pitcher ducking, the infielder diving for the wayward throw, only to have the ball be in the catcher's mitt the whole time (a la Little Big League).
I feel like a dummy, but WHY has it changed? Does it have something to do with the new throwing over rules? With 150 years of pro ball I don’t understand why all of a sudden this situation has started to favor the runners. Are the runners faster now? Did I miss it in the article? If it’s been the case at every lower level, it’s not like the idea can be brand new in MLB.
Where can one find plays broken down by cWPA?
Stathead has plays by WPA but I haven't found a way to list them by cWPA.
I remember high school baseball practices where we'd spend HOURS practicing ways to defend this: pump-fake to second, throw to third; throw down to a MIF who's charging in; throw down cut off by the pitcher; etc etc. In most scenarios, you'd need your high school catcher/MIF to execute at least one good throw/tag from to prevent anything bad from happening, let alone something good. Add in that we had complicated signs and codewords for the various strategies, so there was ample opportunity for miscommunication. And all those practice hours we spent on this came at the expense of practicing basic stuff. I remain convinced that the optimal high school strategy, and probably for college, too, is to just let the runner take second.
In the Orioles paragraph you refer to the 2023 season as "this year". I'm sure this has been answered on EW at some point throughout the years, but when do you personally transition from "this year/this season" to "last year/last season"? For me, it's probably around Thanksgiving.
The evolving cat-and-mouse game makes me think about what we're actually doing when we project a guy to keep up quality career numbers - it's that we're projecting he will continue to stay ahead of the curve and successfully make adjustments.
By coincidence, the highlight for the Orioles on this list of projected defenses (https://www.mlb.com/news/best-projected-mlb-team-defenses-2024) shows a first and third two outs situation. Rutschman throws to Henderson, nabs Turner, inning over.
As a long-time travel softball coach (now retired) with a daughter who was the starting catcher we spent many rides in the truck talking about this situation. Softball having only 60ft bases and no leads is obviously different than baseball. Generally, I rarely let a girl go to 2nd without a throw somewhere. My daughter had a cannon and quick release (humble brag) so often she threw right to third to get that girl breaking home or even better a throw to the 2nd basemen coming up between the bags in the basepath. This stopped the runner at first, often got a tag out of her, or a quick peg home. It’s too good quick throws and no matter the age it’s a gamble. Doing nothing is worse.
wait but if this is the case: “Not only do the Orioles sometimes get outs at second, and not only do they never allow double steals of home, but fewer baserunners test them at all—teams don’t take the free second base against them, because it’s not free.”
…then why don’t the runners on third go home since they know a throw is coming? Is this a Jon Lester pickoff situation where they know it but don’t really believe it?