11 Comments

Is it an exaggeration to say that SEAGER is the most significant stat created in the last few years? I'm thinking in terms of how much it explains about the result of a game and how big of a gap it fills. I want to say it's the most important new stat since the initial set of Statcast stats were introduced.

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how does all of this jive with Eno Sarris' notion that for almost everyone except Barry, swinging is a negative? https://theathletic.com/3292610/2022/05/05/mlb-plate-discipline/

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Great question! Not something I'm prepared to answer yet, but something to spend some time pondering.

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Idk if it’s enough to fully reconcile but both can be true if hitters generally aren’t great at telling balls from strikes.

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This should, theoretically, have a large impact on win probability. As you state up front, it's numbers 1 and 2 in your impacts that happen on every single pitch of the game! The others lag behind by quite a bit. Very interesting!

And - love the videos. Good touch, and easy to navigate.

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Big wow - generally, this is what I spend most of my time thinking about, but to the point of - the difference in skill level in identifying good pitches to hit. This seems like a huge differentiator among hitters.

I often wonder whether swing decisions are knowingly “bad” or just a lack of skill in pitch discernment. I am fascinated by this! The number of all-star caliber players who just have routinely miserable at-bats - they make up for it, obviously, but their decisions are often baffling.

That being said - this is what I value in a hitter - at-bat management, making the best swing decisions possible. Tremendous post!

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I can’t stop thinking about this! Every game I watch, every game of MLB show I play… all I’m thinking about is that chart of all the heat maps!

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Thanks Sam for this article. It's a great discussion of what the patience that some teams value and the aggressiveness that other teams value, and all points in between.. this will definitely change the way I watch baseball games

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No comment on the fun of Cory Seager leading SEAGER?

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I don't want to doubt the miracle of this, but my guess is that SEAGER is a backronym

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backronym

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The 84% stat of empty pitches is crazy! I reacted to it like learning there are eleven minutes of NFL game action over the average three hour twelve minute game. Lots of things to draw from this like how much inactivity the average sports fan doesn’t mind. Maybe, it’s all about that build up. What could happen next gets amplified with all this inactivity. I admit after reading this and Orr’s article I still don’t fully comprehend SEAGER. But that’s on me!

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