I am in a fantasy league with reader Everett and it pains me to admit that whatever his several hundred word, 5-category ranking system is, it appears to be working. After middling results for his first 8 years in the league, he's gone 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 2nd (lost in a tie-breaker), and what is sure to be 1st again this year. (sad face)
Bases loaded, full count is the exact time *not* to try this.
1) Most pitchers pitch out of the windup not the stretch with bases loaded so runners are safe to take off on first move.
2) When the pitcher is throwing out of the stretch, most sensible runners won't start from 3rd in that situation until it's clear the pitcher is going home.
3) If a runner gets complacent and does go first-move when the pitcher is throwing out of the stretch and the pitcher tries an inside move to throw to a moving target 3B going to cover the bag, the runner wouldn't hit the brakes and head back to 3rd, he'd just keep going and score.
This move (sneak pick of runner on 3rd) would work best with runners on 1st and 3rd (pitcher is working out of the stretch) and in that situation, I bet a team could steal an out in a key situation. The challenge would be to signal to the third baseman that a throw is coming.
The pickoff play reminded me of probably the closest thing I have seen to that. In G2 of last years AL WC series b/w my Twins and the Jays, the Jays had runners on 2nd and 3rd with two down in the bottom of the 5th. But with a 2-2 count to Bichette, Correa snuck up behind Vladdy and Sonny Gray whipped around to nail him with the quick tag. This seemed like the right moment for a number of reasons: the place was really loud, we had an alert fielder, a tiring pitcher, and their hottest hitter at the plate. It would end up being Gray's last action of the game, and the importance of that play can hardly be overstated.
6/ I doubt the runner on third is ever aggressive enough off to make this easy (it’s almost impossible for there to be a play at the plate, at least on a play that wouldn’t be an easy out at first anyway). I got out of a jam getting a runner on second this way in high school though (third base was open)
I would love to have immediate on-screen data about a runner's jump (as well as the pitcher's time to the plate, the catcher's pop time, the tag, etc.). It made me wonder why we don't also have immediate access to things like catch probability, route, jump, bat speed, etc. (maybe some broadcasts already have this - the feed I mostly watch, Bally Sports Midwest, does not).
Then I began to wonder if such data would hurt my enjoyment of the game, the way the strike zone box can be distracting/deflating. How many times would I watch, say, a cool-ass diving catch only to find out, eh, 90% of the time that play would look routine were it not for the poor jump or the crappy route. I want to believe, as Feynman said, that I can enjoy both the surface beauty of a flower as well as the "beauty at smaller dimensions, the inner structure, also the processes." But it seems there are moments that what's accessible to the naked eye and what's accessible to analytics are in tension.
I want data like the runner’s jump to be available but displayed subtly on the screen or maybe on MLB.TV, there’s an option to display stats. Too much data flashing on the screen is distracting. Yet, sometimes you want to know why that steal happened.
Last week, I was at Citi Field, home of the massive best scoreboard in baseball. In a small box, the board displays the exit velo on every batted ball, whether a pop foul in the seats, a chopper to third, or one that brings up the big apple in left-center. I love knowing the foul grounder to the third-base coach was 43 MPH. It's always there, but it’s subtle, and I can ignore it or watch it. That’s how these stats should work on broadcasts.
I am in a fantasy league with reader Everett and it pains me to admit that whatever his several hundred word, 5-category ranking system is, it appears to be working. After middling results for his first 8 years in the league, he's gone 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 2nd (lost in a tie-breaker), and what is sure to be 1st again this year. (sad face)
Re: the timing pickoff to 3B.
Bases loaded, full count is the exact time *not* to try this.
1) Most pitchers pitch out of the windup not the stretch with bases loaded so runners are safe to take off on first move.
2) When the pitcher is throwing out of the stretch, most sensible runners won't start from 3rd in that situation until it's clear the pitcher is going home.
3) If a runner gets complacent and does go first-move when the pitcher is throwing out of the stretch and the pitcher tries an inside move to throw to a moving target 3B going to cover the bag, the runner wouldn't hit the brakes and head back to 3rd, he'd just keep going and score.
This move (sneak pick of runner on 3rd) would work best with runners on 1st and 3rd (pitcher is working out of the stretch) and in that situation, I bet a team could steal an out in a key situation. The challenge would be to signal to the third baseman that a throw is coming.
The pickoff play reminded me of probably the closest thing I have seen to that. In G2 of last years AL WC series b/w my Twins and the Jays, the Jays had runners on 2nd and 3rd with two down in the bottom of the 5th. But with a 2-2 count to Bichette, Correa snuck up behind Vladdy and Sonny Gray whipped around to nail him with the quick tag. This seemed like the right moment for a number of reasons: the place was really loud, we had an alert fielder, a tiring pitcher, and their hottest hitter at the plate. It would end up being Gray's last action of the game, and the importance of that play can hardly be overstated.
6/ I doubt the runner on third is ever aggressive enough off to make this easy (it’s almost impossible for there to be a play at the plate, at least on a play that wouldn’t be an easy out at first anyway). I got out of a jam getting a runner on second this way in high school though (third base was open)
I would love to have immediate on-screen data about a runner's jump (as well as the pitcher's time to the plate, the catcher's pop time, the tag, etc.). It made me wonder why we don't also have immediate access to things like catch probability, route, jump, bat speed, etc. (maybe some broadcasts already have this - the feed I mostly watch, Bally Sports Midwest, does not).
Then I began to wonder if such data would hurt my enjoyment of the game, the way the strike zone box can be distracting/deflating. How many times would I watch, say, a cool-ass diving catch only to find out, eh, 90% of the time that play would look routine were it not for the poor jump or the crappy route. I want to believe, as Feynman said, that I can enjoy both the surface beauty of a flower as well as the "beauty at smaller dimensions, the inner structure, also the processes." But it seems there are moments that what's accessible to the naked eye and what's accessible to analytics are in tension.
I want data like the runner’s jump to be available but displayed subtly on the screen or maybe on MLB.TV, there’s an option to display stats. Too much data flashing on the screen is distracting. Yet, sometimes you want to know why that steal happened.
Last week, I was at Citi Field, home of the massive best scoreboard in baseball. In a small box, the board displays the exit velo on every batted ball, whether a pop foul in the seats, a chopper to third, or one that brings up the big apple in left-center. I love knowing the foul grounder to the third-base coach was 43 MPH. It's always there, but it’s subtle, and I can ignore it or watch it. That’s how these stats should work on broadcasts.